The Next 100 Years

Read from Monday, March 7th to Tuesday, March 8th.

The Next 100 Years by George Friedman.  I first saw this book in the gift shop at the end of the Spy Museum here in DC.  I was fascinated, and read almost a whole chapter, but ultimately did not buy it at the time.  But when I saw it in the Borders at Reagan Airport, I decided to finally purchase the book.  It is a fascinating look at what our future could ultimately look like. Friedman uses a specific, scientific method to make forecasts in culture, demographics, technology, and geopolitics for the next 90 years.  He obviously makes no claims on being perfect, but he does have good credentials, being the head of a forecasting think tank.  He is specific about many things within the next decade or two, and then as things progress and there are more possibilities for diversions, he is less sure, but he still picks the path that he sees most likely.  It reads like a history book of the future.  Friedman in fact bases his theories heavily on patterns that he has witnessed during the past century or two, and he explains these geopolitical patterns and then extrapolates upon them.

Nothing is too crazy or far-fetched.  Aliens do not invade, there is not a nuclear holocaust, and robots do not become fully sentient and overthrow their human masters.  Although, there are many interesting ideas.  Friedman's main argument is that this next century is a century of American power.  America is not in decline, and is in fact in perfect position to control global trade and the world.  America, with its position straddling both oceans and the most powerful navy, can control trade.  The current war with the Muslims will be just a minor bump that will subside, and is actually a part of America's overall plan.  Having already complete control over their own continent, America wants to disrupt any power on the Eurasian land mass from becoming too powerful and challenging their authority.  Friedman argues that politicians are really all alike, and their moves are severely much more limited than we think.  There really is a set course that the country can follow. 

China will fragment because of the massive wealth disparity it has generated.  It will not be a threat, but instead Russia will regain strength.  There will be a new, short cold war around 2020 as Russia tries to reclaim the lost Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe.  Western Europe will lose power and political motivation, and Poland will gain strength, as it will gather other Eastern European states into a coalition, and get backing from the U.S. to stop Russia.  However, Russia will fracture and split up.  Turkey, Poland and Japan will all poach off the broken Russia, and they will gain strength in their spheres of influence.  Meanwhile, the world will face a demographic problem.  No longer will we have to worry about overpopulation, but instead depopulation in the developed world.  Migration will be encouraged, and the U.S. has the best to offer.

Around 2040, the world will start moving toward a new World War.  Japan and Turkey will be growing in strength and influence, and the U.S. wants to put a stop to that.  America wants to encourage them to play by America's rules, but Turkey and Japan won't see it that way.  They will see it as a threat to survival.  Much as in WWII, they will form a coalition, and think they need to knock America out quickly and make them try to reach a deal.  Friedman at this point conjures up a premise for the war.  He gets very specific, so that we can see what a war would look like.  The U.S. will have 'battle stars' in space orbiting certain longitudes.  These stations can control missile systems, and are a surveillance system.  The Japanese will build a secret base on the moon, and use it to launch asteroids toward the battle star.  These asteroids have secret jet packs that kick in at the last second and converge and destroy the battle star.  At that moment, the Japanese and Turks launch their missiles on Earth, taking out as many American targets as possible.  The U.S. is knocked out for awhile, while Japanese take targets in Asia, and Turkey moves into Eastern Europe.  There is a ground war in Poland, as U.S. and Polish forces try to hold off the Turks.  In 2050, soldiers will be like Iron Man, but their suits will need to run on electricity.  Eventually, the U.S.'s strong production will complete another battle star and get it operational, and the U.S. can win the war and force Japan and Turkey to sue for peace. 

Friedman thinks the U.S. will then have another golden age, based on investments and innovations in space technology, much like investments in computers last century.  There will be a way to harness energy from solar radiation in space, and the U.S. will become an energy producer, not just consumer and extractor.  Friedman also predicts that by the end of the century the U.S. will butt heads against Mexico.  Mexico will become a major world economic power, and it will want to reclaim much of its lost land.  The borderland will become a territory that is mostly Mexican, and there will be lots of unrest and tension there.

This was a very interesting read, and one that made me think a lot about how I see the world.  Friedman constantly reminds us that the way the world works varies considerably year by year, so in 2000 things look differently than in 1980.  Standing in the year 1900, would we have been able to predict what 2000 would look like? No, but there would be trends you could see, such as the technological innovations in communication, transportation, and the growing power of Germany and Russia and the U.S.  It will be fascinating to see how much of this actually plays out in my lifetime.  Four out of five stars.